There are of course many ripple effects from Theresa May's move to sign Article 50 last night. Some of the most under-reported in London are those in Ireland, where the Republic and Northern Ireland face the regressive prospect of the return of a 'hard border'.
That potential instability comes after Stormont's power-sharing arrangements collapsed earlier this week after the five major parties failed to reach agreement, with an ongoing situation in which there is no executive in Northern Ireland.
This in turn means that there could be fresh doubt cast on whether the Pope will visit Northern Ireland when he is set to visit the Republic next August, a planned trip confirmed by the Vatican last November.
Pope Francis may be forced to abandon any visit, not as a deliberate snub but because there would not be a positive, peaceful climate to highlight. This would mirror 1979, when Pope John Paul II was unable to visit the north because of the Troubles.
Speaking after the Taoiseach Enda Kenny confirmed the Pope's planned visit to Ireland late last year, the late Martin McGuinness said he would also visit Northern Ireland. 'I've been around a long time and I know how these things work,' said the then deputy first minister.
At the same time, the Catholic primate of Ireland, Archbishop Eamon Martin of Armagh, said: 'We would love to think that if the Pope is coming to Ireland that perhaps he might be able to visit Northern Ireland at the same time.'
Archbishop Martin added that the visit would be a 'deeply symbolic and powerful moment' for those in Northern Ireland, coming after the visit of the Queen and the first state visit of Irish President Michael Higgins to London. 'That would be in my mind completed by a visit by the Holy Father to Northern Ireland, where he will be welcomed by members of all the traditions here.'
The editor of the Irish Catholic newspaper, Michael Kelly, went further, saying: 'If a visit to the north wasn't included, the Pope would probably skip the whole island.'
Now, Kelly says the situation in Northern Ireland is being monitored 'very closely' in Rome. 'The Vatican obviously keep a very keen eye on what's gong on in Northern Ireland,' he tells Christian Today.
'The Papal visit is still quite a long way out – a lot can change in a day or a week in Northern Ireland – and I fully expect over the next few weeks political parties will be able to [come to] a deal,' Kelly says, adding that the health of Pope Francis may be a factor, too, next year.
'But if there was a sustained period of political instability, that is obviously something the Vatican would consider – whether the visit would help or make it worse.'
Kelly adds: 'Church leaders here want a visit to Northern Ireland to happen. The mood music even from DUP [Democratic Unionist Party] was to welcome him. I don't see that hardening. But a lack of agreement means if there is not a first minister or deputy first minister, it would be a strange occurrence because the Pope would be coming to highlight success of peace process but...I'm not sure the Vatican would want to bring the Pope and the press [into a more divided environment].'
Kelly says that Brexit 'creates an enormous difficulty for the Church in Ireland' with many of the dioceses straddling the border, and the prospect of a 'hard border' looming as an 'appalling vista'. People in border areas are looking on with trepidation at having to provide documents to move from one parish to the next, Kelly adds.
However, Kelly believes that Brexit itself – the full implications of which will not be known for at least two years – will not affect the visit. 'The Pope's visit will be a pastoral visit,' says Kelly. 'The Vatican would be taking the line that they have a one-island approach.'
All people of good will are hoping that Pope Francis will be able to visit Northern Ireland as well as the Republic next year. Whether all the aligning factors will come into place to enable such a trip, however, remains to be seen.
