Turkish citizens head to the polls on Sunday (April 16, Easter Day) to vote in a major national referendum on a new draft constitution that would dramatically increase the powers of the country's president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
What is at stake in the referendum?
Voters are being asked to decide whether to shift Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential republic. Critics warn that Erdogan's already authoritarian approach would be boosted by a raft of new powers. Arguably, the future of democracy – or a lack of it – is at stake. Once lauded by the likes of Tony Blair as a good candidate for EU membership, Turkey is now seen as slipping into authoritarianism.
What is the context?
An executive presidency has been a long-standing policy of the governing AKP party, founded by Erdogan.
But Erdogan's critics have pointed out that he is already presiding over a country which is the world's biggest jailer of journalists, where over 140,000 people have reportedly been arested since the failed coup attempt last July.
The judiciary has lost 4,000 members, and around 6,300 academics are out of a job or in prison. Some 160 media outlets have closed and within six months of the coup attempt, police had detained some 4,000 social-media users.
Why does the referendum matter?
The vote matters because it is all about enhancing the powers of the president in a country which anyway teeters between democracy and dictatorship.
As Fadi Hakura, an associated fellow and manager of the Turkey Project at Chatham House, told CNBC: 'This vote represents a radical transformation that consolidates the power to a centrally executive president rather than a parliamentary system... that's why it matters.
'If it's a Yes vote, it will codify the vast influence in Turkish politics and Erdogan's already vast influence in policy making. If No, it will shake and undermine the prestige and dent the aura of invincibility that has so far defined his tenure in politics.'
What exactly are the new powers being voted on?
The president would become the head of the executive, as well as the head of state, and retain ties to a political party while the role of prime minister would be scrapped, replaced with one or several vice-presidents.
The president would be given sweeping new powers to enact certain laws by decree, appoint ministers, prepare the budget and choose the majority of senior judges.
Only the president would be able to announce a state of emergency and dismiss parliament.
The right of parliament to scrutinise ministers or propose an inquiry would be taken away.
However, parliament would be able to begin impeachment proceedings or investigate the president with a majority vote by MPs, while putting the president on trial would require a two-thirds majority.
What is the nature of the campaign?
Selahattin Demirtas, the co-leader of a pro-Kurdish party, was set to become one of the main 'No' voices but has ended up in prison (sentenced to 142 years) on what are widely believed to be trumped-up terror charges.
A Kurdish-language song calling for No has been banned, while a study of 168.5 hours of campaign coverage on 17 national television channels at the start of March showed that Yes supporters got 90 per cent of the airtime.
According to The Economist, 'the route from Sabiha Gokcen airport, outside Istanbul, has more than a dozen building-sized banners with an image of the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, or his prime minister extolling a Yes vote. Giant No banners are nowhere to be seen.'
What is the outcome likely to be?
Two Turkish opinion polls published Wednesday showed a slim majority for the Yes campaign, with around 51 to 52 per cent of citizens saying they would vote in favour of the proposed constitutional reforms, according to Reuters.
'I think Erdogan will score a narrow victory, similar to Brexit,' Hakura predicted.
What does it mean for Christians?
The Christian minority of around 180,000 in Turkey is already seen as persecuted and heavily discriminated against. After the attempted coup last July, Islamist extremists attacked Christians while the government declared churches as state property.
As the charity Open Doors says: 'Turkish nationalism, combined with an increasing Islamisation of Turkish society means the tiny minority of Christians and other religious minorities face growing pressure, which is increasingly translating into violent incidents. While conversion is not prohibited by Turkish law, there are serious implications for Muslim background believers as they often experience intense pressure from family, friends and community to return to Islam.'
