As she brazened it out – for now – this afternoon, Theresa May appeared to have learned none of the lessons of the general election she insisted on calling seven weeks ago: neither the instability it has created, nor the need, expressed by swathes of voters, to soften Brexit.
Instead, she appealed to Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, making special mention of them and referring pointedly to the traditional name for her tribe, the 'Conservative and Unionist party'.
But above all, she appealed to the right-wing press to which she has been beholden and of which she now seems so frightened. She retreated to her comfort zone with the Daily Mail and the Sun and stressed that her priority was taking Britain out of the EU, without acknowledgement of the massive impact Remain voters have made on the electoral landscape by voting Labour. And she emphasised security and the need to enhance police powers in the wake of the recent terrorist attacks.
And that was about it. As a performance, it had a certain chutzpah and will get her through the day, though much rests on how she handles the reshuffle (note to Theresa: don't annoy David Davis).
But whether she can survive more than a couple of weeks remains to be seen. May faces both the start of formal Brexit negotiations on a continent where she is now being described as a 'lame duck' and the prospect of trying to get a Queen's Speech agenda through the House of Commons that will have to be different from her failed manifesto and based on some kind of informal deal with the DUP about which, so far, we know nothing.
The key factor here is moderate Tories. Before yesterday, they were few and far between, with Kenneth Clarke acting as almost a lone voice on the party's pro-European left. But MPs will now have to respond to the wider electorate, which appears to want a stop to the prospect of a 'hard' Brexit, and the 13 Scottish Tory MPs are more likely to reflect that sentiment than those in England.
Meanwhile, the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn seeking to form a government within weeks still remains. Indeed, he will have a constitutional responsibility to attempt to do so if May cannot push legislation through the Commons.
But the most likely scenario, alas, is surely another general election this year. Theresa May cannot lead the Tories into that election. Her authority, at least as an election campaigner, has drained away.
How will Tory strategists figure that they can win the overall majority they crave and avoid yet another indecisive result? They will need an alternative leader, at the least.
It is difficult to see any other scenario than an eventual Tory leadership contest followed by a general election. In which case you can expect Boris Johnson to stand, and – contrary to conventional wisdom – probably lose after being knocked out by MPs. Instead, the former Remain campaigner Amber Rudd and Brexit Secretary David Davis look set to run. Rudd – despite the narrowness of her victory in Hastings yesterday – will be more popular among MPs, and Davis among party members who have the final say. But again, can the Tories choose a leader who is in favour of a 'hard' Brexit after last night's vote, and then win an overall majority in the country?
British politics remain up in the air this weekend. As my colleague Andy Walton wrote earlier: 'Any article written today that claims to fully understand the UK general election of June 2017 is overpromising.'
Despite appearances, the Tories are very fragile this afternoon, and could yet implode.
