Almost a quarter of Gen Z women in Ireland could reach their mid-40s without having children if current demographic trends persist, according to a new report examining the country’s changing patterns of family formation.
The study, ‘Choice or Circumstance? Rising Childlessness in Ireland,’ published by the Iona Institute for Religion and Society, projects that around 24.2% of women born in the late 1990s could remain childless by the age of 45.
That would represent a substantial increase on previous generations.
Among women born in the late 1950s, 13.5% were childless at 45, while the figure rose to 18.2% for women born towards the end of the 1960s.
Using data tracking different birth cohorts from the Human Fertility Database and demographic modelling, the report says Ireland has moved away from what was once a strong culture of family formation.
“The data today tell a different story,” the report says, adding that childlessness has increased across consecutive generations.
The report defines childlessness as not having had a child by the age of 45, described as “the demographic threshold at which fertility is (for the overwhelming majority of women) biologically concluded”.
It stresses, however, that the available data cannot differentiate between women who deliberately choose not to have children - “voluntary childlessness” - and those who hoped to become mothers but did not “involuntary childlessness”.
This distinction forms a central part of the report, which raises the question of whether the growth in childlessness is primarily a matter of choice or increasingly the result of circumstances such as delayed family formation, housing pressures and infertility.
Evidence cited by the institute suggests that many people continue to want children.
Polling conducted by Amarach Research for the Iona Institute in 2022 discovered that 85% of respondents ideally hoped to have two or more children, while only two per cent said they wanted none.
The report also points to growing demand for fertility treatment.
It argues: “The very fact that a lot of women are now turning to fertility treatments in their late 30s and older is proof that much of the childlessness we are seeing, and will see, is involuntary.”
One of the most significant changes identified in the study is the growing proportion of women entering their 30s without having had children.
Some 30.9% of women from the late-1950s birth cohort had not had children by age 30. For women born in the early 1990s, that figure had more than doubled to 63.6%.
The pattern is even more pronounced at younger ages, with 86.7% of women born in the late 1990s still childless at 25, compared with 58.5% among the oldest Baby Boomer cohort studied.
“Women aren’t just delaying childbearing and catching up by their mid-40s,” the report states. “A larger proportion are ending up childless.”
It identifies several possible factors behind the trend, including later marriage or remaining unmarried, the prioritisation of education and careers, housing costs and declining religious affiliation.
It notes that marriage continues to be associated with fertility patterns despite the growing number of children born outside marriage.
Central Statistics Office figures cited by the institute show that men are now close to 38 years of age on average when they marry, while women are nearly 36.
The report argues that delays in starting families can have long-term consequences because the likelihood of remaining childless rises as parenthood is postponed.
Ireland’s overall fertility rate has declined substantially, falling from 3.2 children per woman in 1980 to 1.9 in 2000 and around 1.5 in 2024, “well below the replacement level of 2.1.”
Commenting on the findings, Iona Institute spokesperson Breda O’Brien said the current trends will result in “pain and distress”.
“A situation in which people are having fewer children than they planned for, and in a growing number of cases will end up childless, is a personal tragedy, but also has very significant social and economic consequences because of the effects of an ageing population and growing loneliness,” she said.
“As a society, we need to debate why this is happening. Is it purely a result of the high cost of living, or is it also because young people are today often encouraged to put off starting a family until they are well into their 30s, by which time it might be too late? One way or the other, it is a phenomenon we should discuss far more widely if our aim is to help people to achieve their eventual life goals.”
The report stresses that the figures represent modelling, “not destiny”, but it nonetheless warns of wider consequences should high levels of childlessness persist, including an ageing population, fewer workers supporting a larger retired population, increased pressure on housing, pensions, healthcare and long-term care.
The report is sceptical that migration alone can make up for these demographic changes in the long term, describing reliance on it as “at best, a temporary sticking plaster”.
At the same time, policies like affordable childcare, housing support and flexible working have produced only limited increases in fertility, even in countries where such measures are well established, the study found.
In its conclusion, the report describes the direction of travel as “a clear, consistent, and concerning trajectory”, with successive generations of women experiencing higher levels of childlessness.
It explains: “If one in four women never has children, then the fertility rate for all other women must climb to maintain the overall fertility rate at replacement rate (2.1 children per woman). This would mean all other women needing a fertility rate of 2.8. The conditions for a widespread attainment of three-child families do not appear likely. This points to an inevitable conclusion. Such high childlessness undoubtedly means a further fall in the overall fertility rate.”
It concludes by warning that the consequences will increasingly become visible during the working lives of today’s younger generations.
“Ireland has faced demographic challenges before and adapted,” the report says. “The question now is whether society has the will to respond.”
