New polling suggests religion, immigration and abortion could shape key US Senate races in battleground states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Research by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) highlights significant differences in public opinion across Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Ohio and Michigan.
The findings come from PRRI’s newly unveiled ‘Data and the 2026 Midterms’ project, which draws on its American Values Atlas to examine demographic and political trends in states expected to play a pivotal role in determining control of Congress.
According to PRRI, religious demographics vary considerably across the five battleground states and could influence voter behaviour.
Georgia and North Carolina have larger-than-average populations of white evangelical Protestants, a key Republican voting bloc, as well as moderately higher levels of Christian nationalist identification than the national average.
Both states have Black Protestant populations that are double the national average, a demographic viewed as important to Democratic turnout.
Unlike Georgia and North Carolina, Michigan and Ohio are home to larger shares of white Catholics and white mainline Protestants.
PRRI noted that these groups shifted towards Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election but said more recent polling indicates support for the president has significantly weakened.
Texas differs from the other battlegrounds because of its sizable Hispanic Christian population - 11% of Texans identify as Hispanic Protestants, while 18% identify as Hispanic Catholics, both figures being substantially above national averages.
The polling suggests Hispanic Christian communities could prove influential in the closely fought Texas Senate race.
While Donald Trump made significant gains among Hispanic Christians during the 2024 election, PRRI said support has since declined among both Hispanic Protestants (from 64% to 37%) and Hispanic Catholics (from 43% to 23%).
PRRI associated the fall in approval to concerns over the administration’s immigration policies, a shift that could present difficulties for Republican Senate candidate and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who has been one of the strongest advocates of Trump's immigration agenda.
Abortion remains another issue likely to influence the midterm elections, according to PRRI.
Nationally, 61% of respondents supported legal abortion in all or most cases.
Support remained above a majority in each of the five battleground states, ranging from 55% in Texas to 64% in North Carolina.
The report noted that abortion laws currently differ significantly between the states, with Michigan offering extensive legal protections while Georgia and Texas have some of the country’s tightest restrictions.
Beyond electoral issues, the survey highlighted broader cultural divisions.
White evangelical Protestants were the only major religious group in which a majority (60%) agreed that “society has become too soft and feminine”.
The survey further found that white evangelical Protestants were the most likely to say American culture has deteriorated since the 1950s (67%), followed by Hispanic Protestants (58%), white Catholics and Hispanic Catholics (57% each), and white mainline Protestants (56%).
