China's Catholic population has plateaued and may be in decline, according to research published by AsiaNews.
In his analysis, Dr Anthony Lam Sui-ky, a researcher at the Holy Spirit Study Centre of the diocese of Hong Kong and a leading expert of the Church in China, refers to the Blue Book of Religions published by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in 2010. The Blue Book suggested that there were around 5,700,000 'official' Catholics but that the true number could be as high as 12 million.
However, Lam analysed the data and found that in spite of apparently rapid growth, the Catholic Church in China had already begun to plateau by 2000.
He worked out at every year the Church would need 210,000 new baptisms to cover natural losses, not including the loss of Catholics to other religions. The officially recognised Catholic Church in China claimed between 90,000 and 100,000 baptisms a year between 2004 and 2010, which together with baptisms in unofficial churches might have maintained numbers. However, he says, there has been a fall in recent years to only around 30,000 or 35,000 baptisms annually – clearly indicating decline.
Lam also refers to polls showing China to be the least religious country in the world, with 61 per cent claiming to be convinced atheists. Just seven per cent of Chinese people say they are religious.
He also refers to a sharp downturn in religious vocations, in both underground and official Churches. Between 1996 and 2014 the number of priests in training nearly halved to 1,260, while the number of women religious collapsed from 2,500 in training to only 156 during the same period.
Lam says the Church needs to work on strengthening post-ordination training for priests, improving the formation of the laity and encouraging late vocations. He says: "As China is shifting to a middle-class society, more professionals may be re-examining their lives, and maybe considering a second career. Among this group of people, perhaps some seeds of a vocation have been planted. The Church should give them the necessary support by providing them with spiritual upbringing and vocation discernment."
