World to stay hooked on fossil fuels, says Intl' Energy Agency

LONDON - The world will stay hooked on fossil fuels up to 2030, although oil's share of global energy demand will fall slightly, while coal use rises, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA predicted fossil fuels would account for 84 percent of the overall increase in energy demand between 2005 and 2030 when consumption will reach 17.7 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (toe), up from 11.4 billion toe in 2005.

Oil will remain the single largest source of fuel, but its share in primary global demand will fall from 35 percent to 32 percent.

Continuing the spectacular growth of the past few years, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, jumping by 73 percent between 2005 and 2030 and pushing its share of total energy demand up from 25 percent to 28 percent.

China and India will be responsible for much of this rise.

The share of natural gas, a much less polluting fuel than coal, rises more modestly from 21 to 22 percent and nuclear generation, which does not produce any emissions of carbon dioxide, is expected to shrink from 6 percent of the mix to 5 percent.

Hydro electricity holds steady at 2 percent, biomass and waste declines from 10 percent of the energy mix to 9 percent and other renewables creep up to 2 percent from 1 percent.

Primary energy demand is demand for energy as a raw material to produce heat, refined oil products or electricity.

For electricity generation, coal remains the main source, with its share of total generation rising from 40 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 2030.

Oil-fired generation eases from 7 percent of electricity production to 3 percent, while gas generation rises from 20 percent to 23 percent.

Nuclear electricity accounts for 9 percent of power generation by 2030, down from 15 percent in 2005, and hydro-electric power decreases its share from 16 percent to 14 percent.

Biomass and waste should account for 2 percent of power generation by 2030, up from 1 percent in 2005, and the share of wind and other renewables rises to 4 percent of power generation, also from 1 percent, the IEA said.