Analysis: Should Force Be Used to Save Remaining Korean Hostages?

As rumours circulate of a possible rescue operation and with the death of the second South Korean hostage this week, some are contemplating whether military force should be moved up higher on the list of options to save the remaining 21 Korean Christian volunteers.

|PIC1|While at first glance a rescue mission might sound plausible - especially with no signs of a breakthrough in negotiations - experts are saying that high-risks coupled with possible lack of international cooperation would make a successful military rescue difficult - if even an option.

South Korean presidential spokesman Cheon Ho-Seon said in response to the question on Wednesday that the Korean Government has not changed its position and is still pursuing dialogue to resolve the hostage crisis, according to Chosun Ilbo, South Korea's largest newspaper.

Cheon said a military rescue operation at the present moment would be hasty, also noting that Korea does not have sufficient intelligence for a military strike. South Korea only has 210 troops in Afghanistan, mainly working on humanitarian projects.

If Korea decides to launch a forced rescue, it would need the help of the United States and NATO, both of which are already in the area monitoring conditions.

Yet even with their state-of-the-art spy devices, the rescue team would still be hard pressed for essential information on the Taliban captors - such as the number of guards and the interior of the buildings where the hostages are being held, according to Chosun Ilbo.

Moreover, the 21 remaining hostages are separated into five to six groups and are frequently moved around making it difficult to locate them. The Taliban has also warned that suicide bombers are guarding the hostages and would readily detonate themselves if confronted with a government rescue mission.

An additional foe is the rugged mountainous terrain of Qarabagh district in Ghazni province, where the hostages were abducted, which would make it difficult to conduct a rapid operation.

Ghazni governor Merajuddin Patan agrees with South Korea that a "military operation is not an option at the moment," according to an interview with the governor on Wednesday.

"We want the safety of the hostages and that must be achieved through talks," he told The Korea Times.

However, South Korea is expressing growing frustration over the progress of negotiations with Taliban rebels.

The five major political parties in South Korea adopted a joint statement Wednesday addressed to Kabul that read:

"Just repeating the principle of not dealing with terrorists and maintaining the hard-line stance could bring another sacrifice," according to The Korea Times.

The Korean parties urged the US Government and the United Nations to be more involved in securing the hostages' release.

A Korean delegation composed of all five of the nation's political parties will press the issue further in Washington during its meetings with US lawmakers Thursday. Korean officials have acknowledged that they have no political leverage in Afghanistan and are seeking help from the United States to stop the Taliban from killing more hostages.

In Seoul, some 27 family members of the Korean hostages also conveyed their hope for US intervention on behalf of the hostages on Wednesday. The family members submitted a written appeal for US help to the US Embassy in Seoul that read:

"We plead with the US government for help: the kidnapped went there to share love, but they are having days like hell. We believe the Bush administration will act for humanitarianism," according to The Korea Times.

Other options to secure the release of the hostages include exchanges for rebel prisoners, ransom money and continued negotiations.

However, Afghan President Hamid Karzai's spokesman already made clear that an exchange for Taliban prisoners was not an option because the government cannot allow kidnapping to "become an industry", according to The Associated Press.

Meanwhile, although ransom would probably not be accepted by high-level Taliban commanders, it might persuade lower-level militants holding the hostages, according to AP.

"However, I'm sure South Korea politically would be very hesitant to do that because they would be indirectly financing terrorism," said Jolyon Spencer of DynamiQ, an Australian-based security and emergency management consultancy.

"Because it's at the government level, I imagine it would be very difficult to keep the reason for a successful release a secret, so the government would be hesitant to pay a ransom."

For the time being, negotiations remain the key hope but experts conclude that a military operation cannot be ruled out if more Korean hostages are killed or if negotiations break down completely.

"We've said there should never be any military operations," said Paik Seung-joo, a military expert at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, according to AP. "But I think it would be difficult for our government to maintain the same position if the situation worsens."

It has been two weeks since the group of 23 South Korean Christians were kidnapped by Taliban militants in insurgency-prone Ghazni province. The church group was on its way to provide free medical services to poor Afghan citizens when their bus was hijacked on July 19. The leader of the aid group, Bae Hyung-kyu, was found dead last Wednesday with 10 bullet holes in his body. This past Monday, the second victim Shim Sung-min was killed.

The kidnapping of the 23 Korean Christians is the largest abduction of foreigners in Afghanistan since the fall of the Taliban regime in 2001.

"The entire ecumenical community weeps at the senseless loss of life taking place in Afghanistan," said Rev Dr Samuel Kobia, General Secretary of the World Council of Churches, in a statement. "We invite our member churches to pray with our brothers and sister in Korea for a peaceful end to this crisis and that the hostages will be freed."