Almost a year ago the Church thought it was being provided with concrete evidence of what some of us are seeing – a change in culture and a more responsive openness to the gospel.
The Bible Society published “The Quiet Revival: Gen Z leads rise in church attendance”. It used YouGov polling to report monthly church attendance rising from 8% of adults in 2018 to 12% in 2024, with men aged 18-24 jumping from 4% to over 20%. The findings suggested a “quiet revival” reversing decades of decline, and it caused a bit of a reaction – although to be fair the reactions varied – often depending on the presuppositions and wishes of the people reacting. Some were triumphalistic, seeing this as evidence of the greatest revival in human history. Some went completely the opposite, regarding it as ‘fake news’ - all smoke and mirrors.
Yours truly, while hoping it was true, had his doubts and expressed them in this article on Christian Today. I have to admit that I was quite shocked by the vehement reaction from some to the article. It seems that the argumentative methodology of social media has now become fairly mainstream - you are either totally for something or totally against it.
In that original article I argued that the Quiet Revival was not quiet. Now it turns out that it was not even a revival. I wrote: “What about the endlessly repeated assertion that church attendance is up by over 50%? It’s just not true. The reality is that 2,000 people out of 13,000 stated in a survey that they went to church at least once a month. This is higher than the previous survey, but it does not prove a 50% increase in attendance.”
This week the pollsters, YouGov, after some intense scrutiny and questioning admitted that their methodology was, to say the least, flawed. People could respond from outwith the country; they could answer the survey multiple times and complete it too quickly and inattentively. There were other serious flaws – which some of us who had been involved in YouGov surveys before were well aware of.
The Bible Society are to be commended for so quickly retracting the report when YouGov admitted their methodology was false – and for informing the wider world that this was the case. It should also be acknowledged that the Bible Society had asked YouGov to check their quality controls and the data they had received.
For those of us who had doubts, I don’t think that this is a time for an ‘I told you so’ attitude, far less a time to engage in ‘schadenfreude’ (delight in the misery of others)! But equally there are lessons to be learned for the wider church.
The biggest by far is that we are just far too worldly. By that I mean we too often use the methods and arguments of the world. In the West today we are governed by opinion pollsters. I am fed up being told what the Scottish, English, American, Australian people want – based on opinion polls. Our politicians seem to have an inability to govern without opinion polls. The perceptive and sometimes prophetic Yes Minister explained how opinion polls can be used to just reflect the opinions that the pollsters want.
How the world governs itself is perhaps not the church’s business. How the church governs itself is. We don’t do church doctrine by opinion poll – or at least we would hope that is not the case – although I have had it put to me that I should change or tone down some of my biblical teaching because ‘young people won’t like it’. But how do they know that young people won’t like it? Opinion polls.
But it is not so much in the area of doctrine but rather missiology and ecclesiology that I fear the Church is more prone to worldly temptations – of which being guided, encouraged or discouraged by opinion polls is just one. In terms of ecclesiology (how we do church) the church has been in danger of becoming far too corporate and managerialist. In terms of missiology, we have been equally too prone to use the latest sociological theories and the fundraising techniques of the advertising industry. There is only one thing that sells better than stoking fear, and that is creating false hope.
I remember raising funds for a youth worker at one point and I was told by the missions’ pastor of the large church I was asking for funds from, that I had to really sell it. By which he meant promise the next reformation, revival, and give them a figure for how many converts – because that is what the big funders want. And if getting a big funder is difficult enough, getting one that does not hold to the adage “he who pays the piper calls the tune” is virtually impossible – although miracles do happen!
I think that there are two other big temptations here. Firstly, it is human nature to want to know what is happening. That helps us feel a little more in control. But biblically we cannot know what is happening ... only the Lord knows those who are his (2 Timothy 2:19). We can sow the seed, but only God can make it grow (1 Corinthians 3:6).
Secondly, we really, really want success. By success I don’t mean rejoicing in those who are converted and brought to Christ, but rather rejoicing because it has been our ministry that has resulted in this (which takes us back again to the danger of having ministries funded by donors who want some bang for their buck!). In the Christian subculture – just like the secular culture – there is a lot of competition.
So just as a political party will often talk up the fear of the other, and the real hope that they, and they alone can bring (‘hope not hate’ anyone?), so in the church we are sometimes prone to grasp at anything which we can use to offer hope (or conversely create fear).
I stress again that I don’t think the Bible Society were doing this. They were passing on, in good faith, information they had been given. But I do think they were a bit naïve and unquestioning. The irony is that I am pretty certain (as are many other commentators) that there has been at least a cultural shift towards Christianity – especially amongst certain groups - but it is not yet revival, and it can just as easily shift away.
Meanwhile the church will, or should, take its encouragement that the Lord Jesus will build his church and the gates of hell will not prevail against it (Matthew 16:18). That, as we sow the seed of the Word, we know it will not return to the Lord empty (Isaiah 55:11) and that at the end of time, when all the kingdoms and powers of this world have faded away, there will be a great number in heaven from every nation, tribe, people and language, that no one can count (Rev 7:9). So, let's continue to work while it is still day – for the night comes when no one can work (John 9:4).
David Robertson is the former minister of St Peters Free Church in Dundee and a former Moderator of the Free Church of Scotland. He is currently the minister of Scots Kirk Presbyterian Church in Newcastle, New South Wales, and blogs at The Wee Flea.
