In its just released forecast for 2016, the global intelligence company Strategic Forecasting, Inc. — known as Stratfor — says the Islamic State (ISIS) will not be eradicated in the new year but that the intensified military campaign against the jihadist organisation will weaken its conventional capabilities.
This will force ISIS and its affiliates to try to conduct "terrorist attacks outside the Middle East to maintain its relevance," the Stratfor Annual Forecast 2016 says. "This in turn will drive competition within the jihadist landscape as al-Qaeda factions in the Arabian Peninsula, the Maghreb, West Africa and South Asia try to keep pace."
Stratfor says the ISIS threat will fuel Islamophobia in the West and bring about the fragmentation of Europe.
"Border controls and calls for preserving national identity will dilute the EU principle of allowing free movement of people. Closed borders will create a bottleneck of migrants in the Western Balkans, a region already rife with ethnic and religious tension," it says.
But the biggest developments in Europe next year will be happening in France and Germany, Stratfor says. It noted that both countries are preparing for 2017 elections, and both are moving to a "nationalist and Eurosceptic direction."
It says, "over time, Germany will become more outspoken and much less willing to compromise on matters of EU integration."
Stratfor warns that 2016 will see conflicts coming into "sharper focus," giving rise to "apprehension around the world, leading into what will likely be an even more tumultuous 2017."
The global intel expert sees three major trends for 2016: the U.S.-Russia standoff, surging nationalism in Europe, and Turkey's re-emergence as a regional power. It says the three will be interrelated and "feed off of one another."
Stratfor says Turkey "will likely make a military move into northern Syria while trying to enlarge its footprint in northern Iraq."
It says Ankara will use its military might against both ISIS and Kurdish rebels. This will lead Turkey into confrontations with its old rivals, Russia and Iran, it says.
Although Moscow does not want conflict with Ankara, "confrontation is something it cannot avoid," Stratfor says.
It expects Russia to draw the U.S. toward a compromise that would slow a Western push into Russia's border. "The United States will be willing to negotiate on tactical issues, but it will deny Moscow the leverage it seeks by linking counterterrorism cooperation to a broader strategic discussion," Stratfor says. "The U.S. administration will work instead to shore up European allies on the front lines with Russia."
