Slow Progress Seen at UN Nairobi Climate Change Talks

As last week's UN climate talks concluded in Nairobi, Kenya, plans to combat global warming remain on track towards 2012 goals, although commentators are saying that a landmark breakthrough will not be able to take place until US President George W. Bush's term finishes.

|PIC1|Paal Prestrud, head of the Center for International Climate and Environmental Research in Oslo said, "Everyone is waiting for the United States. I think the whole process will be on ice until 2009."

Bush, who is now in his second term as US President, decided not to accept caps under the UN's Kyoto Protocol, despite the fact that the US is the largest source of greenhouse gases on the planet. Commentators say the US refusal to adopt these caps is discouraging other hugely influential top polluters, such as China and India, from accepting them also.

Talks in the Kenyan capital took place over the past two weeks, with about 70 environment ministers agreeing last Friday to a 2008 review of Kyoto. It is hoped that a review at that time will act as a spring board to bigger emission cuts by richer countries beyond 2012.

A firm agreement was also seen this week to help Africa adapt to climate change, including possible affects of droughts, floods and diseases.

Ministers agreed to promote greener technology and further investment into wind and solar power was also a possibility in Africa.

Criticism centred on the sluggish implementation of Kyoto, which obliges 35 rich nations to cut emissions to 5 per cent below 1990 levels by 2008-12.

European Commissioner Stavros Dimas said, "It is increasingly clear that global emissions will have to be halved by mid-century if we are to have a chance of keeping climate change within tolerable limits."

He added that countries had to "step up efforts to complete the process as soon as possible".

One worrying factor is that nations signed up to Kyoto account for only 30 per cent of world emissions, while some vital countries such as the US, which accounts for 25 per cent of the world's emissions, still refuse to accept emissions caps.

Bush pulled out of Kyoto in 2001, saying that caps would cost jobs and the plan wrongly omitted targets for poor countries.

Paula Dobriansky, Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, who led the US delegation at the Nairobi talks said, "The president is very committed to the policy and strategy which he has set forth."

Dobriansky added that there were absolutely no plans from the Bush administration to change its current policy towards emissions.

Pressure continues to build on US states and cities to implement federal limits on greenhouse gases. Three Democratic senators wrote to Bush last Wednesday saying they would push for "mandatory caps" on emissions. The three are to lead environment committees in the US Congress after winning control from Bush's Republicans in elections this month.

The issue of climate change is set to take precedence across Europe over the coming year. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, has said she will prioritise climate change during her G8 and EU presidencies next year.

Meanwhile David Miliband, Britain's environment minister, has recently argued that climate change is an issue that can help to rebuild European unity.

Several senior delegates at the UN talks said that 2010 now looks the most likely date for a new global pact to replace Kyoto.

Environmentalists want a 2008 deadline. Hans Verolme, climate director of the WWF conservation group said, "Technically it's still not impossible. The planet cannot wait."

However, a reluctance to cut greenhouse gases was also a clear weakness cited in a report last month by ex-World Bank chief economist Nicholas Stern, who said inaction over climate change might have apocalyptic economic costs compared with costs of acting now, Reuters has reported.

It remains that countries do not want to force the issue alone and take the lead, fearing they will pay huge costs economically now, but also worry they will also suffer far bigger economic effects later if others fail to follow suit.