Next UN Security Council Head Likely to be Korean

The UN Security Council has agreed that the successor to Secretary-General Kofi Annan will be chosen by the end of October.

The announcement has sparked rumours over who could be elected to take up the responsibility of the vital role. Many commentators have now said that the short timetable chosen by the UN will be an advantage to the current front-runner, South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon.

|PIC1|In addition, Ban's chances of being offered the position are increased as diplomats from several key Security Council nations said their governments would have no objection if the next UN chief comes from among the seven formally declared candidates, among whom Ban enjoys the most support.

Diplomats have said that they hope to give the new head at least a few months to prepare for the role, which is more than given to Annan, who was appointed just 2 weeks prior to taking up office.

France's U.N. Ambassador Jean-Marc de La Sabliere said, "I think everyone has agreed on that, then we discuss exactly the best timing."

At present, the Council has held two preliminary polls; Ban won both polls -- the latest with 14 members encouraging his candidacy and only one discouraging it.

On Wednesday, the Council decided to schedule two more straw polls. In the first, candidates will only learn the number of positive and negative votes they get. The second will feature coloured ballots to indicate whether a candidate is opposed or supported by one of the five veto-wielding members of the Council -- Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States. A negative vote from one of the permanent members would spell trouble for the candidate's chances.

Most nations are now accepting that the next secretary-general should come from Asia because of a tradition that the post rotate by region.

The new secretary-general will be the eighth in the 61-year history of the United Nations. Annan, who was elected at the end of 1996, will step down on 31 December 2006 when his second five-year term comes to an end.

Despite Ban's lead, the race is still hard to confidently predict; the Security Council has a huge influence in determining and adapting the rules of the process, therefore, if any of the five permanent members wanted to slow down the process, they could likely find a way to do so. Also, the informal polls are difficult to read. Council members choose from three choices - 'encourage', 'discourage', and 'no opinion'. This means that they may not necessarily back a candidate they encourage to run. Of course they can always change their votes later.