Leadership race could split the ANC

JOHANNESBURG - The race for the leadership of South Africa's ruling ANC threatens to split the party apart and, without the guiding hand of its elder statesmen, it could put its future in doubt.

The ANC chooses a new leader at a December 16-20 meeting after a battle in which factions have formed around party deputy president Jacob Zuma and President Thabo Mbeki, thwarting efforts to form policy on fighting AIDS, crime and poverty.

The battle could determine who will be South Africa's next president. Political analysts say it could threaten the future of the party by widening rifts and some suggest both men should step down in favour of a more unifying candidate.

But while earlier differences were overcome when party elders stepped in, this time there are few left.

Nelson Mandela, a global symbol of reconciliation who led the ANC to victory in the first all-race elections in 1994, has officially retired from public life.

Local media reported that Mandela's foundation pulled an image of the Nobel Laureate with Mbeki from an advertisement, fearing he would be seen to be taking sides in the race.

Walter Sisulu and Oliver Tambo, who both fought apartheid in South Africa and abroad, are dead.

"It is a pity that there are no people with the kind of political weight to tell them (Zuma and Mbeki) to stand down," said political analyst Allister Sparks.

"There is nobody there to knock heads together."

ZUMA WINS?

If, as expected, Zuma wins the ANC leadership race, he is almost certain to become South Africa's president.

This could dash Mbeki's hopes of still being able to influence national politics and help pick his successor after he steps down as president in 2009.

The two fell out when Mbeki sacked Zuma as deputy president in 2005 after he was implicated in a corruption case. Zuma's supporters said he was a victim of a political witch hunt driven by Mbeki's allies.

The crisis forced the party to take sides, and the differences have been heightened during the campaign.

Mbeki is backed by the business elite, while Zuma, who portrays himself as a friend of the common people, is supported by South Africa's powerful trade unions.

South African Nobel peace laureate Desmond Tutu underscored concerns over party divisions.

"You (the ANC) may choose anybody you like, but don't choose somebody of whom most of us would be ashamed," he told Reuters, without referring to any candidate.

Political analyst and former ANC official Nic Borain said: "Early on, the conflict took a tone where it sucked people in ... traditions of the ANC have been shaken by this conflict."

The party once coordinated the struggle against apartheid from jail cells in Robben Island, where Mandela and Sisulu were held, and helped form an anti-apartheid campaign in exile mobilised by Tambo and others.

In the 1970s, prominent nationalist rebels broke away from the ANC and attacked Tambo's leadership. They declared Mandela their leader, but he sent a strong message from his prison cell that he regarded Tambo as his leader, ending the troubles.

In the ANC's first national conference after exile in 1991, both Mbeki and Chris Hani were seen as frontrunners for deputy president. To avoid damage, Sisulu was persuaded to stand.

Hani, leader of the South African Communist Party, was assassinated in 1993, and Sisulu stepped aside for Mbeki.

When Mandela was about to be inaugurated as South Africa's first black president in 1994, many said he favoured Cyril Ramaphosa as his deputy over Mbeki. But ANC elders wanted Mbeki, the media reported.

Borain said: "The Tambos and Sisulus are not emerging, the conditions are not producing those kind of people."