Militant Islamists groups have expanded their presence in Africa and more than doubled fatalities linked to violent activities in specific regions in the continent according to a study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS). In the year ending June 30, 10 militant Islamist groups have been responsible for the death of 22,307 people, a majority of them Christians in West, East and Central Africa.
The analysis by the center shows that the groups have intensified their violent, deadly means since 2023, representing a 60 percent increase from the 2020-2022 period. “Nearly half of the fatalities (10,685) in the past year have been in the Sahel,” a vast region covering 10 countries such as Mali, Chad, Nigeria, Burkina Faso and Cameroon.
“Along with the Lake Chad Basin, these three regions (including Somalia) account for 99 percent of the militant Islamist-linked fatalities in Africa the past year,” stated the study, which also mapped how the militant groups have expanded their territorial hold in the continent. “Across Africa, an estimated 950,000 square kilometres (367,000 square miles) of populated territories are outside government control due to militant Islamist insurgencies. This is equivalent to the size of Tanzania.”
Over the last decade, noted the study, militant Islamist groups have been responsible for over 150,000 deaths. The Al Shabaab in Somalia and JNIM (Jama'at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin) affiliate groups in the Sahel have intensified their activities from 2022 in the respective regions leading to fatalities of over 49,000 in each of the two regions in the last decade. The Lake Chad Basin countries have suffered an estimated 39,000 fatalities over this timeframe.
The political instability in the Sahel region has been a major contributor to the spike in fatalities linked to militant groups. The region has averaged 10,500 annual deaths over the last three years compared to 4,900 in the previous period between 2020 and 2023, a seven-fold increase since 2019.
“The pace and scale of violence in the Sahel is likely even higher than reported, given that the military juntas that seized power in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have restricted media access within the region, which is the main source of conflict data,” states the study that was published on July 28.
The JNIM network with up to 7,000 militants is responsible for over 80 percent of fatalities in the Sahel, particularly in north, central and southern Mali and southern Burkina Faso. The JNIM network now occupies over half of Burkina Faso. The groups have lately increased the use of social media, drones and AI to recruit fighters, spread propaganda and counter military forces in Nigeria, Mali and Burkina Faso.
In Mali, JNIM has shared videos of alleged abuses by security forces targeting the Fulani community with the aim of portraying “itself as a defender of marginalized populations.” Government forces have accused the community of supporting the militants with the study linking 17,700 civilian fatalities to government and allied forces.
Increased attacks by the Al Shabaab domiciled in Somalia has led to 6,224 fatalities in 2024/2025. The group’s financial muscle - drawn from extortion, road tolls and piracy - is estimated at $200 million, rivalling Somalia’s internal revenue, and making it easier for the group to recruit fighters, now estimated at between 7,000 and 12,000. A particular area of concern is the growth of Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) which the U.N. reports is now the administrative and financial headquarters for ISIS global.
The study comes amidst an attack on Christians in a church in Komanda city in eastern DRC by the Allied Democratic Forces, an militant group affiliated to ISIL/ISIS. The militant group took responsibility for 43 worshippers who were killed during a night mass, and burned shops and homes. The group also claimed responsibility for the early-July attack that claimed the lives of 66 people in Ituri province, near the border with Uganda.
