Donald Trump's election to the presidency of the United States has caught everyone off balance, including, perhaps, Trump himself, though he hasn't shown it.
Amid the scramble to assess what this political earthquake means, however, one theme has been as absent as it was during the campaign itself. Climate change was nowhere on the agenda.
Clinton believes it's real and that human beings cause it. Trump doesn't believe in climate change, once tweeting: "The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive."
He's also promised that on taking office he would "rescind all job-destroying Obama executive actions...including the Climate Action Plan" (a series of regulations passed during the Obama years aimed at cutting carbon dioxide emissions). He has also pledged to "cancel the Paris climate agreement" – a rather hubristic promise given that America is only one signatory of many.
Trump wants to produce more oil and gas for export in a bid for US energy "dominance". He also made a play for the votes of Virginia coal miners with a pledge to "save the coal industry" by repealing air pollution regulations that limit harmful emissions from coal-burning power places, though it's far from clear that this would actually work. He's also no fan of solar power, saying it's very expensive (in fact prices have fallen through the floor).
The question why the vast majority of Republican primary candidates were climate change sceptics is one for another day. But the fact remains that in the party as a whole, there's widespread rejection of mainstream science, for reasons that are ideological rather than based on reasoned argument. With a Republican House and Senate, Trump the climate sceptic is pushing at an open door.
For anyone concerned about the future of the planet rather than just about who sits in the White House, the prospect looks bleak. Having said that, Trump is notoriously inconsistent – one of the great worries about the prospect of his presidency. How much of what he has promised – or threatened – will survive the Washington policy mincer is anyone's guess.
Furthermore, while Trump may be able to push through highly damaging domestic policies like opening up Alaska to mining and oil development, when it comes to international treaties his room for manouevre is far less than he might imagine. The Paris climate change deal was hailed internationally as an outstanding achievement, and its framers acted with considerable foresight: they build in a four-year withdrawal period for any country wanting to pull out. So even if Trump announces US repudiation on day one of his presidency, it would be impossible for it simply to walk away and still retain any international trust or credibility.
Furthermore, while America is still per capita the biggest polluter on the planet, in terms of actual emissions China is ahead of it – and China has made a big push for green energy, not only with a view to tackling its own domestic pollution but with an eye to exporting its technology. The precipitate fall in the price of solar panels – of which Trump appears unaware – has been driven by a massive exporting programme from China.
According to Andy Atkins, chief executive of the A Rocha Churches' climate change group, Trump's accession would have had a far greater impact five years ago. Since then green technology has been kickstarted and become economically self-sustaining, now out-competing fossil fuels without needing costly government subsidies. And if Trump does pull out of Paris, Atkins told Christian Today: "Other countries will say, 'We can't let a short-term political blip affect the long-term global future.' They'll make a concerted effort to lessen its impact on negotiations."
In the longer term, there are questions to be answered about why Christians on the right in the US – among them most evangelical Christians – are so resistant to the idea that climate change is real and that they can do something about it. It may be a toxic mix of commitment to small government at any cost and an unhealthy interest in End Times theology. But with Donald Trump in the White House, Christians who care about the environment have a mountain to climb.
Follow Mark Woods on Twitter: @RevMarkWoods
