New EU Treaty Requires Luck of the Irish

The European Union's planned new reform treaty is in real danger of being toppled next year by Ireland, undermining moves to pluck the 27-country bloc out of a two-year institutional crisis.

At present, Ireland is the only country set to hold a referendum next year to ratify the treaty, whose text could be agreed as early as October and which is aimed at replacing the EU constitution stalled by Dutch and French voters in 2005.

Many commentators, including the Irish minister whose job it will be to deliver a "Yes" vote, say there is a huge risk of a repeat of the rejection by Irish voters of the Nice Treaty in 2001 when it took a second poll there to ratify an earlier set of reforms now widely seen as insufficient.

All 27 EU states need to ratify the treaty. Other states -- including France and the Netherlands -- look set to go through the more predictable route of ratification by parliament.

But Ireland is bound by its constitution to hold a referendum.

"It is too early to look at hypothetical situations like an Irish rejection, but yes, if this happened, we would be in the same position as 2005," a European Commission official said.

Ironically, Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern was responsible for piecing together the final parts of the now defunct constitution during Ireland's six-month EU presidency.

Ireland's move to hold a second Nice referendum in 2001 was widely criticised at the time as undemocratic. Analysts say it is highly unlikely the government would risk the same tactic in the event of a "No" vote next year.

Europe minister Dick Roche, who had the job of turning round the Nice referendum six years ago, conceded that another negative vote in 2008 was a real possibility.

"Anyone that thinks this referendum will be a walkover will be deluding themselves. It will have to be a very strong mobilisation of the 'Yes' vote -- more Nice II and not Nice I where people were taken for granted," Roche told Reuters.

In 2001, the "Yes" vote surged from 453,000 in the first poll to 906,000 in the second after the government managed to mobilise voters to turn out in much larger numbers.

Yet the "No" vote also rose, from 529,000 in the first poll to 534,000 in the second, indicating a solid underlay of public opposition to European initiatives.

That, combined with the current hostility to the EU among Irish farmers and dissatisfaction with it among some of the business community, is worrying senior government officials.

"The Irish Farmers' Association (IFA), who are hostile to world trade talks involving the EU, have indicated that they will vote "No" if there is no improvement in the EU's position, while many business bosses are concerned over the EU's meddling in corporate tax," said one.

Paradoxically, EU funding has been a major contributor to a booming Irish economy since Ireland joined the bloc in 1973, with Irish farmers in particular receiving hunderds of millions of euros under the Common Agriculture Policy.

But Irish farmers are angry with EU Trade Commissioner Peter Mandelson's handling of world trade talks, fearing they will be the big losers in any deal. Irish business leaders oppose moves towards a common EU corporate tax rate.


COMPELLING ARGUMENTS

Sources within the IFA, which represents nearly 100,000 farmers, also did not rule out campaigning for a "No" vote. One said: "We hope the situation improves, because otherwise there will be a backlash."

"It would not be in anybody's interests to hold the treaty hostage for other issues, but this referendum will require all the political parties, trade unions and business leaders who believe in this treaty to get behind it," Roche said.

As in France and the Netherlands two years ago, Roche said Eurosceptics from around Europe would focus their efforts on supporting the "No" campaign in Dublin in the coming months.

Analysts also highlight the risk that extraneous issues could overshadow the debate over the new treaty, which provides for a long-term president, a strengthened foreign policy chief and more say for European and national parliaments.

"Neutrality, taxation, immigration, enlargement and WTO could all come into play," said Brigid Laffan, research director of the Dublin European Institute at University College Dublin.

"Referendums are a one-off "Yes" and "No" vote on a complex issue so the political environment at the time is key."