Labour loyalists may save Brown in crunch vote

Scottish pensioner Frances O'Grady will vote for Labour in an election next week to choose a new MP - although she is not sure why.

"I always vote Labour. It's loyalty I suppose. I would never do any different," said O'Grady, 62, out shopping in one of the most depressed areas of Glasgow.

Diehard Labour supporters like O'Grady look set to help Labour hang on to the Glasgow East constituency on July 24, albeit with a much reduced majority, buying embattled Prime Minister Gordon Brown some breathing space after a string of losses sparked talk of a leadership coup.

With the Conservative Party on track to oust Labour in the next parliamentary election, due by May 2010, defeat in Glasgow East could be the final straw for those in Labour who believe Brown must go.

"If Labour wins, however small the majority and however low the turnout, that is good news for Gordon Brown because a win is a win," said Peter Kellner, president of pollsters YouGov.

The Conservatives routed Labour in elections earlier this year for two English parliamentary seats, local English and Welsh councils and the post of London mayor.

But analysts believe core Labour voters - families who have voted Labour through generations - will help Brown retain Glasgow East and his job, for the time being.

Labour insiders and analysts say there is no sign that any credible contender is ready to challenge Brown.

"I'd have thought there's a good chance the by-election will be good enough for Gordon Brown to continue over the summer," said Bill Miller, politics professor at Glasgow University.

"In the current state of fear in the Labour Party, if they hold the seat they would be happy," he said.

A KICKING FOR LABOUR

Thursday's vote may not seal Brown's fate but a drastic slide in support for Labour in once "safe" areas like Glasgow East would not bode well for the parliamentary election.

The sprawling constituency - with pockets of extreme poverty in which life expectancy is lower than in the Gaza Strip - has traditionally been rock solid Labour territory.

Labour won there with a thumping majority of 13,507 in 2005. Thursday's by-election was triggered when the sitting member of parliament stood down for health reasons.

The pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) - Labour's main opponents in Scotland, where the Conservatives barely figure - looks set to steal thousands of Labour votes.

The latest Sunday Telegraph/ICM poll in Glasgow East gave Labour 47 percent, down 14 percent, and the SNP 33 percent, up 16 percent. But the SNP needs a 22 percent swing to win.

The SNP ended 50 years of political dominance in Scotland by Labour in May 2007, becoming the largest parliamentary force.

Fatigue after 11 years of a Labour government, anger at the slow pace of regeneration in one of the most depressed areas of Europe and frustration with the rising cost of living will likely slash the Labour vote again next week.

There are new schools and health centres in Glasgow East but grim housing estates where children play amid broken glass and burnt out motorbikes show there is much to do. Unemployment, alcohol and drug addiction far surpass the national average.

"They (Labour) don't do enough for the working class," said Theresa Ferguson, 49, a lifelong Labour voter until last year when she switched to the SNP.

"They do things for pensioners and the sick, but nothing for the working class," said Ferguson, who works in a food shop on Tollcross Road, a shabby-looking stretch of stores and pubs in Glasgow's east end where locals say methadone addiction is rife.

For a party traditionally seen as the champion of the poor, Ferguson's damning assessment suggests Labour must work harder to retain its vital core vote.