The Resolution Foundation has suggested that 2026 could be the year in which a “new era” of deaths outnumbering births becomes the norm.
The Coalition for Marriage warned in response that Britain is facing a “demographic time bomb” that can only be defused by a return to the “gold standard” of traditional marriage.
The Resolution Foundation noted that Britain had already seen years in which deaths overtook births, notably in 2020 during Covid and also in 2023. In 2024 births were higher by a small margin, and figures for 2025 are expected to show a narrowing of that margin.
However, in 2026 deaths are likely to overtake births and the margin between them is likely to grow.
“These outturns suggest that 2026 may be the first year in a new era when deaths exceed births by an ever-widening margin, forever closing a chapter in the demographics of this country that opened over a century ago”, the Foundation said.
The Coalition for Marriage called this a “demographic line-crossing” and pointed out Office for National Statistics data which suggested falling fertility rates and lower well-being for those who are separated compared with those who are married. The group also cited studies which suggest that married women tend to have their first baby before those who merely cohabit.
The economic and political consequences of falling marriage and birth rates were raised, with governments attempting to keep their population numbers up via immigration, leading to lost social cohesion and contentious political arguments.
“The current direction of travel is obvious. Fewer marriages, fewer children, and then a permanent argument over importing future generations. That is not a plan. It is drift," the Coalition for Marriage said.
“The positive alternative is achievable. Coalition for Marriage exists to champion the gold standard of one man, one woman marriage, calmly and publicly, and to rebuild confidence that forming a family is normal, good, and possible.”
