Whoever put the headline on my predictions for this past year written in 2016, had about the right idea: 'Brexit stalemate, early election, fury over Trump: 15 political predictions for 2017.'
And yes, the general election idea was pretty unfashionable at the time, and true, I predicted Trump's bombshell Jerusalem embassy move.
But I got a lot else wrong, including the result of that election, which was in the event so close that it's tempting to reproduce the same headline again for my 2018 predictions.
1. 'After months of constitutional wrangling over Brexit, and amid indecision about a "hard" or "soft" version plus resistance from the remaining EU members to do a deal with the UK and a growing Tory rebellion on both sides of the divide on the backbenches, Theresa May calls an early general election to clear the air.'
2. A hung parliament results in deepening constitutional crisis for the UK, with Whitehall paralysed by Brexit and Westminster in shock as Jeremy Corbyn's Labour gains the bigger share of the vote. Corbyn and John McDonnell, the shadow chancellor, win over the SNP as well as the Liberal Democrats and a shaky 'progressive alliance' is formed.
3. Except that it is not that 'progressive' as swiftly the Scottish Nationalists demand another independence referendum and the regressive break-up of the UK raises its regressive head, again.
4. Over on the Tory side, May immediately resigns, having never wanted to call another election in the first place but having been forced by ruthless Tory strategists to keep the show on the road. Hopes of a 'smooth transition' to a safe pair of hands like the Chancellor Philip Hammond are dashed as the ever-ambitious Boris Johnson and a host of other MPs throw their hats into the ring. In the end, a young (he's 44) former army officer in Afghanistan and Iraq, Tom Tugendhat, a Catholic, emerges triumphant.
5. Tugendhat is an EU remainer, resulting in continued Conservative infighting. He's by now moderated his position to accepting Brexit but staying in the single market, which accords nicely with Corbyn's eventual position. Furious Tory backbenchers claim that the 'liberal elite' has taken over and clamour for yet another election as Boris Johnson finally accepts that his plan to be prime minister is over, quitting the Commons to focus on his Telegraph column and hit the lucrative speaking circuit.
6. Elsewhere, Trump's plans for a US embassy in Jerusalem take shape, with architects drafted in. But his decision to recognise the Holy City as the capital of Israel backfires spectacularly at home and abroad, with support draining away amid increased tensions in the Middle East and another Israel-Gaza war that Trump is seen as having provoked.
7. In the end, only evangelicals are left supporting Trump, as the Russia collusion scandal and allegations of sexual harassment in the White House engulf his presidency. To the horror of evangelical leaders, Trump calls what many think is a routine press conference and sensationally quits, claiming a 'vast leftwing conspiracy' involving the FBI and CIA and returning to his playboy lifestyle in New York.
