Political, ethnic imbroglio awaits EU Chad force

DAKAR - European Union peacekeepers bound for eastern Chad will be flying into a political and ethnic hornets' nest that could suck them into an entangled regional conflict already spilling across national borders, analysts say.

A flare-up of ethnic killings in east Chad over the last week highlights the dangers and sensitivity of the planned EU mission, which precedes a much bigger United Nations/African Union peacekeeping deployment in Sudan's violence-torn Darfur.

Up to 3,000 European troops, roughly half of them French and led by an Irish commander, are due to start deploying by mid-November in eastern Chad and northeast Central African Republic. Both regions have been hit by the spillover of violence from the 4-year-old crisis in Darfur.

In Chad, the EU soldiers will try to secure a rugged eastern region where ethnic clan feuding and hit-and-run guerrilla warfare are practically a way of life, carried out by turbanned fighters riding on horseback, camels or armed pick-up trucks.

"The area is one of extreme instability, with military groups running across the border, dividing and reforming," said Patrick Smith, editor of London-based Africa Confidential.

The U.N.-authorised EU mission to Chad and CAR will include 300 U.N. police and 50 military liaison officers. It is mandated to take "all necessary measures" to protect civilians, refugees and relief workers and help the delivery of humanitarian aid.

U.N. agencies caring for 400,000 Sudanese refugees and displaced Chadians in lawless eastern Chad have been clamouring for several years for international protection.

"There have been a huge number of incidents in the recent past, we have several refugees killed, humanitarian staff hurt, hijacked cars, warehouses looted, equipment robbed, so the presence of this force is absolutely crucial," U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said in Brussels.


"NO CLEAR PEACE TO KEEP"

The EU contingent will be stepping in to not just one, but multiple conflicts on the ground that feed off each other.

Over the last two years, eastern Chad has been swept by cross-border raids by Arab militias from Darfur, clashes between Arab and non-Arab communities and lightning guerrilla attacks by Chadian rebels fighting to topple President Idriss Deby.

"Both in Chad and in Darfur you see peacekeepers coming in where there is not a very clear peace to keep," said Sally Chin, an analyst with the International Crisis Group think tank.

Although Chad's main rebel groups recently initialled a preliminary peace deal with Deby's government, some of the fractious rebels have said they will attack the EU peacekeepers if they get in the way of their military operations.

"If the EU force becomes a target, it could cause more problems than it solves," said Africa Confidential's Smith.

With the end of the rainy season approaching in eastern Chad and Darfur, the risk of violence increases, as occurred last year when Chadian rebels launched a flurry of raids.

"Given the general instability in eastern Chad and the rebel threats, there is the possibility the EU force will be tested in some way," ICG's Chin said.


NEUTRALITY WORRIES

Some analysts worry that France's long-standing presence in Chad -- it has a military contingent and Mirage air squadron stationed there -- and the strong French component of the EU force could compromise the neutrality of its mission.

France's air power was credited with helping to turn back an advancing rebel offensive against Deby last year and French planes and special forces helped Central African Republic troops to clear rebels from a northeast region in late 2006.

But some see the French presence giving the EU peacekeepers much-needed military muscle to prevent the kind of defeat suffered by African Union troops in Darfur last month, when suspected rebels overran one of their camps, killing 10.

"Anyone who takes on the EU troops will have the French after them," said Alex de Waal, a writer and Darfur expert.

Most analysts say lasting peace in Chad and Darfur is impossible without a comprehensive political settlement.

"I don't think we'd be seeing the conflict in Chad if there wasn't Darfur, the two are intimately connected," said Brian Thomson, an associate of Chatham House, a British think tank.

This raises the stakes of the EU mission.

"If the EU deployment is a failure, it will augur extremely badly for the Darfur mission," Smith said.