The European Union's planned new reform treaty is in real danger of being toppled next year by Ireland, undermining moves to pluck the 27-country bloc out of a two-year institutional crisis.
At present, Ireland is the only country set to hold a referendum next year to ratify the treaty, whose text could be agreed as early as October and which is aimed at replacing the EU constitution stalled by Dutch and French voters in 2005.
Many commentators, including the Irish minister whose job it will be to deliver a "Yes" vote, say there is a huge risk of a repeat of the rejection by Irish voters of the Nice Treaty in 2001 when it took a second poll there to ratify an earlier set of reforms now widely seen as insufficient.
All 27 EU states need to ratify the treaty. Other states -- including France and the Netherlands -- look set to go through the more predictable route of ratification by parliament.
But Ireland is bound by its constitution to hold a referendum.
"It is too early to look at hypothetical situations like an Irish rejection, but yes, if this happened, we would be in the same position as 2005," a European Commission official said.
Ironically, Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern was responsible for piecing together the final parts of the now defunct constitution during Ireland's six-month EU presidency.
Ireland's move to hold a second Nice referendum in 2001 was widely criticised at the time as undemocratic. Analysts say it is highly unlikely the government would risk the same tactic in the event of a "No" vote next year.
Europe minister Dick Roche, who had the job of turning round the Nice referendum six years ago, conceded that another negative vote in 2008 was a real possibility.
"Anyone that thinks this referendum will be a walkover will be deluding themselves. It will have to be a very strong mobilisation of the 'Yes' vote -- more Nice II and not Nice I where people were taken for granted," Roche told Reuters.
In 2001, the "Yes" vote surged from 453,000 in the first poll to 906,000 in the second after the government managed to mobilise voters to turn out in much larger numbers.
