Japan and China keen to avoid 1998 Jiang visit rerun

Ten years after a disastrous visit to Japan by China's top leader dominated by their bitter wartime past, Beijing and Tokyo are keen to avoid a rerun that would risk damage to the deep economic ties between the Asian rivals.

Chinese President Hu Jintao will retrace some of predecessor Jiang Zemin's steps while in Japan, dining at the Imperial Palace and speaking to students at Tokyo's Waseda University a day after his Wednesday summit with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda.

But few expect the sort of pointed lectures on Japan's 1931-1945 invasion and occupation of China that Jiang delivered at a state banquet hosted by Emperor Akihito, in his own speech at Waseda and during his only news conference in Tokyo.

The two countries "have gone through a very difficult 10 years and have realised that abusing history for short-term diplomatic and political gains has its costs," said Andrew Horvat, a professor at Tokyo Keizai University. "I think they have learned that."

Arriving in Japan not long after Tokyo had apologised to South Korea for its often-brutal 1910-1945 colonisation of the peninsula, Jiang had sought a written apology for China.

When it became clear none was in store, whether because Jiang refused to promise to let bygones be bygones or because hardline Japanese politicians dug in their heels, or both, the Chinese leader delivered a series of harsh rebukes over Japan's past.

By one account, Japanese present "visibly paled" when Jiang lectured on the wartime past in front of the emperor, a scene one Japanese official recalled left him with a "sense of bitterness".

Many Chinese, for their part, were angry and offended by Tokyo's refusal to offer more than a verbal apology.

INTERTWINED ECONOMIES

Despite efforts by both sides to repair the damage, relations chilled again between 2001-2006, when Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi made yearly visits to Yasukuni Shrine for war dead, seen in Beijing as a symbol of Japan's past militarism.

In a sign that episode still rankles, Japanese media reported that Koizumi would not attend either a state dinner for Hu or his breakfast meeting with former Japanese prime ministers.

Some 18 months after Koizumi's successor, Shinzo Abe, initiated a thaw with an "ice-breaking" visit to Beijing, both sides now have many reasons to try to ensure Hu's visit goes smoothly.

"If you see the current situation of relations between the two countries, I don't think that the history issue is one we have to tackle now," a Japanese foreign ministry official said.

China overtook the United States as Japan's biggest export market in 2007 and Japanese foreign direct investment to China stood at $6.2 billion last year after hitting a peak of $6.6 billion in 2005.

Under fire internationally over its human rights record in Tibet and elsewhere ahead of the August Olympics, Beijing is keen for Fukuda's support for the Games.

Fukuda, dogged by doubts about his ability to cope with a divided parliament and a combative opposition, needs a diplomatic success to try to halt a slide in his support rates, which the Mainichi newspaper said on Saturday had slumped to 18 percent.

FLASHPOINTS

Still, potential flash points remain for Hu's visit, his first abroad since anti-Chinese unrest erupted in Tibet in March.

Japanese nationalists have seized on the issue of human rights in Tibet to criticise China and rightwing activists could well take part in protests by pro-Tibet groups during Hu's visit.

"China is very keen to keep Tibet off the agenda and Japan is under pressure (to bring it up)," said Phil Deans, a professor of international affairs at Temple University's Japan campus. "It's a question of how anodyne they can make their statements."

Patriotic sentiment in China has been inflamed by Tibetan unrest and Western criticism, while Japanese anxiety about rival China's rise has been stirred by a row over pesticide-tainted dumplings and Chinese fervour during the Olympic torch relay, one reason Hu will try to show a friendlier face during his stay.

Failure to resolve a feud over energy resources in the East China Sea could incline Japanese media to dismiss the summit as a performance lacking substance, one Japanese diplomatic expert said, but prospects of a breakthrough appear dim.

"Is the visit going to be hunky-dory?" said Horvat.

"You can't put money on it, but you can assume they have learned from past mistakes."