What lies ahead for Libya now?

CT: A lot of Libyans are celebrating the death of Col Gaddafi. What’s your initial reaction to it?

Dr Hagopian: It is a remarkable day in a sense because 42 years under one-man rule have come to an end after nine months of popular revolt. It is a very, very special day. Whilst we were going through the motions of Libya being taken over by the National Transitional Council, one question that remained at the back of my mind and that of many analysts, was what about Gaddafi’s family? What about Gaddafi and his sons? How much mischief would they be able to produce? How much resistance would they be able to put up against the NTC?

Now the three last key strongholds, including Sirte, have fallen - and that in itself is quite a dramatic move in terms of freeing the whole country from the remnants of Gaddafi’s supporters. Then to cap it all off we have news that not only has Gaddafi been killed, but two of his sons have either been captured or killed.


CT: What challenges do you see on the road ahead?

Dr Hagopian: It is a remarkable day but also, knowing a bit about how the country and the region works, I would like to introduce a few words of caution. The first is: let’s not get too excited. This is only the end of the beginning and there is a lot still ahead. The strongholds falling and the capture of the Gaddafi inner circle is a huge boost to the NTC but there is a huge road ahead and I think that the death and killing of Gaddafi should not be looked at with too much glee.

People should be able to look forward and that means coming together in order to start in earnest the political reconstruction that the country needs. With this idea of all Libyans finally coming together in what they call a free Libya to start the process of political reconstruction, what is also important is that Libyans do not get swayed by too much vengefulness and vindictiveness because let’s not forget that, as much as Gaddafi and his circle were reviled, there are still many people in Libya who are either related to him by blood in the tribe or by marriage.

Therefore, in a small country with hardly more than six million people, it is important to make sure that not more polarisation takes place but rather that a process of healing takes place. That process of healing is very, very important if we are to see Libya come out of the mentality of the 60s and 70s, and into the 21st century.


CT: Prime Minister David Cameron said Libya has a greater chance of democracy now that Gaddafi is gone. Are you optimistic that democracy is going to come to Libya?

Dr Hagopian: I am optimistic if three things come together. One is that the Libyans themselves don’t get overtaken by too much zealous party politicking and factionalism and actually work together and overcome their own divisions.
There are all sorts of different colours in the country. There are those from a conservative Muslim background, others who are liberal and more Western-minded. For those two to come together is not so self-evident but for the sake of the country and all those who died in the last nine months to liberate the country and lead it towards the 21st century, they should work together earnestly and instead of finding what divides them, try to find what unites them.

The second point is that we in the developed world, particularly the likes of France and the UK who helped in this process, should be there to help the Libyan leadership move forward, set up the constitution and lead the country into a democracy that is sensitive to the cultural needs of the country and is not the kind of one-man rule that Gaddafi instituted for 42 years.

The third reason I am optimistic and feel it is possible is that, unlike other countries, Libya is blessed with oil and that oil will make it easier for its economic levers to turn. Between Libyans coming together, the support of the international community, and the revenue of oil as its main industry there is a possibility that it will happen but these three need to work together.

If we get off course and fall into petty squabbles and factionalism, we are going to end up with another order marred by violence and a lack of democracy.


CT: Do you think the same could happen in Libya as happened in Egypt, where persecution against Christians has intensified since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak?

Dr Hagopian: I don’t think it will happen in Libya as it has happened in Egypt. Unlike Egypt, where roughly 10 per cent of the population is Christian – that equates to around 8 to 10 million Egyptian Christians – in Libya there are hardly any local Christians. The Christians that are there are by and large expatriate Christians who are coming in to the country as workers. So you cannot compare the two.

In one sense, we have to be careful across the whole region because there is a conservative Islamist fervour coming up. So we have to be careful but in Libya that feeling is not there, it is more a tribal country and a Christian-Muslim divide is not an issue there as it is in some places like Syria or Egypt.