A year after succeeding Tony Blair as prime minister, Gordon Brown's poll ratings have sunk and talk of a challenge to his leadership is rife.

The man who waited in the wings as Chancellor for more than a decade could be forgiven for wondering whether the best things really do come to those who wait.

The economy has taken a downturn, the government has been accused of making errors and Brown's austere leadership style has been criticised. Government officials and Labour MPs now whisper conspiratorially about a challenge to his leadership.

But such a move is widely seen as unlikely.

"People will talk about a leadership challenge but they won't do it," said Robert Worcester, the founder of polling group MORI and a leading commentator on British politics.

"If the pressure became so heavy, it's conceivable (there would be a leadership challenge) but only barely conceivable, and the odds would be 50-1 against."

Political analysts say there are no serious candidates in the cabinet or party. A parliamentary election is not due until May 2010, so there is time for opinion poll ratings to improve, especially if the economy shows a hint of recovery.

Changing prime minister again after little more than a year could look like desperation.

"In order for a challenge you need a challenger and there isn't an obvious one," said Peter Kellner, the head of international opinion research group YouGov.

"I don't think there's an appetite in the party for a battle over this, and I can't think of a single member of the cabinet who would provoke it."

Several people are mentioned as future Labour leaders, including foreign secretary David Miliband and schools minister Ed Balls. But none is seen as having the national profile, broad support or desire to take on what could be a poisoned chalice.

LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT ELECTION

A leadership challenge now could damage the party and would do little to improve the government's chances of winning the next election, the political analysts say.

"Miliband is obviously one to watch, but he's a work in progress," said John Curtice, a professor of politics at Strathclyde University.

"If you're going to upset the apple cart, you've got to have someone who can put things together again afterwards, and there's not really an obvious person to do that."

Support for Labour is at its lowest in more than 20 years, an opinion poll showed on Sunday. At just 26 percent, Brown's party is 23 points behind the main opposition Conservatives.

Rising energy prices and the global credit crisis, which has hit the economy and made homeowners nervous, has dented confidence in the government and hit the Scot's popularity.

The economy grew by 0.4 percent in the first quarter from three months earlier, the slowest rate in three years. Inflation rose to 3.3 percent in May, the highest rate since Labour took power in 1997, making it harder for the central bank to cut interest rates and boost growth.

Nearly 45 percent of those surveyed in Sunday's poll said Brown should resign now.

To force a leadership contest, 20 percent of Labour MPs - a total of 70 - would have to sign up.

"The rules are stacked against," said Worcester. "For a start, there aren't 70 people willing to put their heads above the parapet."

A challenge can take place only if requested by a majority of the party conference on a card vote. Robert Rogers and Rhodri Walters, the authors of "How Parliament Works", say this is virtually impossible to achieve.

"I think it's just mid-term blues writ large," Worcester said, suggesting "it certainly will not be the same come early 2010."

Last month Labour lost a parliamentary seat to the Conservatives for the first time in 30 years. On June 11, Brown won a parliamentary vote his plans to extend the time terrorism suspects can be held with a greatly reduced majority, and he had to rely on Northern Irish MPs to secure victory.

But barring a disaster or scandal, political experts say Labour is likely to limp on, hoping for an improvement between now and May 2010 to improve its election chances.