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Taiwan election likely to breathe life into economy

When Taiwan votes for a new president on Saturday, many will likely ignore pro-independence rhetoric in favour of bread-and-butter economic issues.

Posted: Thursday, March 20, 2008, 8:12 (GMT)
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Ma has proposed a plan known as "633", which is to achieve economic growth of 6 percent, a jobless rate of 3 percent and per capita GDP of $30,000. Ma hopes his China platform will help him hit the targets.

With Taiwan's economic growth averaging 4.9 percent over the past 5 years, several analysts said a 4 to 5 percent target would have been more realistic over the next few years as the world economy, hit by the credit crisis, looks set for a slowdown.

Standard Chartered's Phoo said that lowering the jobless rate below its current level at about 4 percent, relatively high compared with a decade ago, would be difficult without boosting employment in the services sector.

Many factories have moved production to lower-cost locations outside Taiwan and critics say government spending has been minimal in recent years, fostering a sense of a widening income gap and lack of jobs.

Grace Ng, an economist at JPMorgan, said Taiwan need not look too far to see how closer ties with China would likely benefit the economy. Hong Kong's GDP growth accelerated to about 7-8 percent after it signed a trade pact with China in 2004.

Ma also plans to spend T$4 trillion (65.5 billion pounds) over 8 years on 12 infrastructure projects to pump prime the economy.

Liang Kuo-yuan, president at Polaris Research Institute, noted the growing influence of China on Taiwan's fortunes.

"KMT's 633 pledge will be impossible without China's enormous market, and for Hsieh, a more conservative approach will not go down well with voters, especially since cross-strait ties are increasingly intertwined," he said.

Hsieh wants a "prosperous economy", with his policies based on a "golden triangle" of sustainable development, economic prosperity and social justice.

Ma and Hsieh have proposed expanding trade, from banking to tourism, including allowing more Chinese tourists to visit.

Taiwan will need to build more shopping malls and hotels, which will create jobs in services and construction and in turn lift domestic consumption and wages.

Taiwan's stock market rallied after the legislative election, but has since weakened with stock markets globally, while the Taiwan dollar is up 5.5 percent this year.

"Financial markets overall do think that at this point in time, opening up of cross-strait links is the most crucial factor going ahead," economist Ng said.



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