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Prospects dim for G8 climate change deal

Posted: Sunday, July 6, 2008, 7:26 (BST)
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U.S. President George W. Bush, who was to meet Fukuda after arriving in Hokkaido, insists Washington will only set targets if big emerging economies such as China are on board as well.

"Will the effort to be announced by the G8 be convincing enough to get the emerging countries to say 'OK, we're ready now to come on board'? If we can get that in writing at Toyako, we'll have done our job," a French official said.

But an aide to French President Nicholas Sarkozy said he was not optimistic about reaching an agreement on the issue.

Analysts and diplomats have said that the G8 leaders were likely to craft a fuzzy agreement on a long-term goal to allow Fukuda to save face, but that real progress will likely have to wait until a new U.S. president takes office in January.

"Both advanced and developing countries are close to an agreement on the long-term target," Japanese Environment Minister Ichiro Kamoshita told NHK public TV.

"China and India were not against the idea at the environment ministers meeting. We now want the United States to make a firm commitment and take a step forward at the summit."

LEADERS AND PROTESTERS

Climate experts want advanced countries to commit to reducing emissions by 25-40 percent by 2020. Tokyo and Washington say specific interim targets are not on the table in Hokkaido, although leaders are likely to acknowledge the need for advanced countries to set them.

But a deal that falls short of mid-term targets is unlikely to satisfy either environmentalists or Fukuda's domestic critics, who say Tokyo should at least come up with a figure of its own.

With the attendance of several African leaders, this is the largest gathering since G8 summits began more than three decades ago at the Chateau de Rambouillet outside Paris in November 1975 to discuss the oil crisis and a world recession.

Some charge that the summit, which draws huge media coverage, countless activists and sometimes violent protests, has got out of hand. Twenty-two leaders will be in Hokkaido.

Thousands of anti-G8 activists have poured into Hokkaido to protest the rich countries' cosy club. Some will be staying in three camp grounds in the vicinity, with a heavy police presence on hand to try to keep them from disrupting the summit.

"We feel honoured that my camp was chosen as the site. From what I'm hearing, I support their activity," said Akeji Takai, the owner of one campsite about 20 km (12 miles) from the venue.

"We've held several meetings with local households . but people are worried how this will develop."



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