Israel, The Vatican and Saudi Arabia: Trump's first trip tells us a lot about him

Reuters

After taking a lot longer than many of his predecessors to dust off his passport and head overseas, we finally know the destinations of President Trump's first foreign jaunt.

Rather than just visiting one country, maybe a neighbour like Canada or an old ally like the UK, Trump is heading out on a triple-header. The President will visit the Vatican, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

So what does this itinerary tell us and what is the trip likely to achieve? Firstly, for a president who has been presented by himself and his supporters as an 'outsider', this is a remarkably 'normal' itinerary.

Any Republican (or Democratic, for that matter) President for the last 70 years has been an ally of Israel and of Saudi Arabia. Good relations with the Vatican have increasingly become important as the percentage of US residents who are catholic is now over 25 per cent and as Popes have become hugely popular figures in the United States.

The lack of a radical move in Trump's travel plans will calm some nerves. It shows that for all the talk of his maverick status, he is at least to an extent following a well-trodden path.

What is the significance, then, of the three places he has chosen to visit?

First, Israel. Trump said last week, when meeting Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, that a peace deal would be achieved between Israelis and Palestinians. 'We will get it done,' he proclaimed.

If a deal could be achieved, it would be remarkable. But Trump has shown little understanding of the fiendishly difficult issues at play. The roadblocks to peace in Israel-Palestine are numerous – the Israeli settlements in the West Bank, the status of Jerusalem, Palestinian Refugees and much more besides. Without resolving these issues, any final peace deal won't happen – this isn't simply another one of Trump's business deals.

It's significant that Trump has announced he will visit Israel, but not mentioned whether he will visit the Palestinian territories. Maybe, then, rather than his visit to Israel being the first step on the road to a Trump-sponsored peace deal, the visit is more aimed at a domestic American audience.

The Trump coalition is a curious mix of disenfranchised blue-collar workers, evangelical Christians, and the so-called alt-right movement.

The isolationist strand of the alt-right was disgusted with Trump's recent intervention in Syria. Might it be that Trump is seeking to shore up support from the evangelical segment of his base? A picture of him at the Western Wall will be a valuable signal to evangelicals – many of whom support Israel as an article of faith.

What, then, of Saudi Arabia?

Saudi Arabia has been a key western ally. The UK and the United States maintain a friendly relationship there – with UK Prime Minister Theresa May visiting recently.

As well as trading and providing the Saudi's with arms, the U.S. maintains the alliance with this repressive Islamic regime because of the supposed strategic value in doing so. Don't expect to see any dissent in Saudi Arabia during Trump's visit. That would be to big a risk for the country's beleaguered human rights campaigners.

Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia will ensure good potential for future arms deals for American manufacturers (always in competition with their British counterparts). It will also help to ensure ongoing strategic co-operation in the region. Saudi Arabia and Israel both provide stable allies for the United States in a region where much is in flux. They are both also implacably opposed to Iran and its nuclear ambitions – something which Trump returned to again and again during his campaign.

And so we come to the Vatican – the third leg of Trump's triple travel triumph, or so he will hope.

Pope Francis, the de facto head of state in the Vatican, was critical of some of Trump's platform while he was running. 'A person who thinks only about building walls, wherever they may be, and not building bridges, is not Christian. This is not the gospel,' said the Pontiff.

This obvious rebuke was followed up by the US Catholic Bishops' critical response to Trump's travel ban.

However, there is common ground on abortion issues – with Trump's Supreme court pick Neil Gorsuch being seen as staunchly pro-life. Trump will seek to capitalise on that and build bridges with the Pope – who remains one of the world's most popular figures.

So we can see how Trump's trip to Israel helps him shore up evangelical support, The Vatican helps him shore up Catholic support and Saudi Arabia helps him shore up the foreign policy establishment. It's a canny move by the President. Whether the trips themselves do anything for the people in those countries, or indeed for ordinary Americans, remains to be seen.

Follow Andy Walton on Twitter @waltonandy