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Floods Force Many to Face Climate Change Reality

German fisherman Peter Schneider knows the floods come each year and says they are good for business -- but few other people see any benefit as experts warn of more high water to come.

Posted: Monday, July 23, 2007, 13:38 (BST)
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'SOMETHING IS CHANGING'

Floods killed more than 7,000 people in the world last year, a recent study by reinsurance group Swiss Re study showed -- roughly a third of all victims of natural catastrophes such as storms, earthquakes, droughts and extreme cold or heat.

Statistics gathered by insurers -- who look at the cost of a catastrophe to measure its severity, not the death toll -- also indicate climate is changing.

"One single event can never be a sign of climate change," said Jens Mehlhorn, who heads a team of flood experts at the Zurich-based company.

"But when you see a series of such events, and that's what it looks like at the moment ... it may be about time to say something is changing," he said.

This year's UK floods were an event statistical models say should happen once only every 30 to 50 years, Mehlhorn says: the floods in 2000 were a 25-30 years event.

Two such events in only seven years are not statistically impossible, but they are unlikely. Other countries have seen similar increases in such disasters.


FLOATING HOUSES

While Britons ponder whether homes should still be being built on flood plains, in the Netherlands -- where many live on land well below sea level -- people in some cities are building floating houses and houses on stilts.

The country is also upgrading a 30 km-long dyke at a cost of $1 billion that protects much of the land.

If such protection is on offer, flood plains should not be a bad place to live most of the time, said Colin Thorne, head of physical geography at Britain's Nottingham University.

"Most of the world's great civilisations grew up along rivers -- people are always going to live there. But you have to have plans for flooding," he said.

Near the Oder, Klaus Mueller proved the point.

"That dyke won't burst again," said the 69-year old retiree, who fled the rising water by walking his flock of sheep over a distance of more than 12 km (7.5 miles) in 1997.

"It's at least 1.5 metres higher, if not two. And it's at least 10 metres wider," he said.


(By Douwe Miedema, with additional reporting by Peter Apps and David Evans in London)



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